We knew things in Cleveland were bad, but we didn’t know things were this bad.

The Cavaliers start to the season has been shaky to say the least, with LeBron and Co. currently sitting on a 5-7 record after their most recent loss to the Houston Rockets away from home.

Many thought season #15 for LeBron James would be another formality after the Cavs’ first two games against Boston and Milwaukee, where Cleveland began 2-0. But after losses to teams such as the Magic, Nets, Knicks, and Pelicans, things have taken a turn for the worst.

The situation is so bad, in fact, that it’s quite possible Cleveland could miss the playoffs entirely, something that hasn’t happened in James’ career since his third year in the league.

According to basketball-reference.com’s Playoff Probabilities Report — a table which simulates each teams remaining schedule 7,500 times and spits out a variety of numbers — the Cleveland Cavaliers only have an 8% chance of making the playoffs at the end of the season.

According to bballref:

“Teams are sorted by their average conference rank in the simulations, so a team with a worse average W-L record might possibly
be ranked ahead of a team with a better average W-L record.”

As you can see by the table, the Cavs — after 7,500 simulations of the rest of their season — are only projected to win 34.6 games and lose 47.4 games.

Obviously, there are many variables that could be thrown into the mix that the simulations don’t account for, such as Ty Lue getting fired, Isaiah Thomas’ eventual return, and the Cavs actually playing some defense.

Still, it’s startling to see a LeBron James-led team being projected to miss the playoffs after seven straight Finals appearances.

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